Biden may vow to fight on and beat Trump after the recent embarrassment of the Biden vs Trump debate, but is the rest of the world convinced?

As Biden works to try and convince campaign donors that he can still win the election, our recent AI-driven analysis of sentiment around Joe Biden following the U.S. presidential debate suggests that his attempts may be futile.

Our analysis reveals a startling and significant drop. Just take a look at the image above which shows that Biden’s sentiment scores have plunged to below 40%, which is largely due to critical media coverage and public reactions to his performance during the Biden vs. Trump debate.

To add insult to injury, this freefall of sentiment has been made all the more worse by the recent suggestion from the New York Times that Biden should step down from the presidential race to serve his country. Ouch.

Ever since this hit the world, it’s without question that this has heavily influenced public opinion further against Biden, and further contributed to the demise of Biden’s sentiment. It is absolutely irrefutable that the Biden vs Trump debate dynamics have been heavily influenced by these media narratives. Now the question on everyone’s lips is this: Could this be make or break for Biden?

June 2024 sentiment trends

This sentiment analysis conducted by our team using our proprietary algorithms was undertaken by analysing public news data over the period March to July 2024. Our machine learning model sifted through over 1 million articles across more than 3,700 sources to gauge the overall sentiment and identify shifts in public opinion. Here’s what we found….

Early June: Both candidates experienced fluctuating sentiment scores around 46-50%. Initially, Biden had a slight edge in the Biden vs Trump debate sentiment battle.
Mid-June: Biden’s sentiment peaked at around 56%, while Trump’s remained relatively stable.
Pre-debate: Trump’s sentiment briefly dipped below Biden’s just before the debate.
Post-debate: Following the debate on June 28, Biden’s sentiment saw a sharp decline to below 40%, while Trump’s sentiment increased, peaking around the same time. It is without doubt that Biden’s sketchy performance during the debate worked in Trump’s favour.

State-wise sentiment scores

We thought it would be interesting to look at how sentiment towards the two candidates was shaping up on a state-by-state basis. Let’s take a look at how things are looking through this lens:

California: Biden leads with an average sentiment score of 53%, compared to Trump’s 47%.
Florida: Both candidates are tied with a sentiment score of 49%.
Ohio: Trump slightly edges out Biden with 50% over 48%.
Texas: Trump holds a significant lead with 56%, while Biden scores 40%.
Georgia: Biden leads with 55% against Trump’s 52%.
Illinois: Trump has a much higher sentiment score (48%) compared to Biden’s 20%.
New York: Biden leads with 52% over Trump’s 46%.
Pennsylvania: Both candidates show high sentiment scores, with Biden slightly ahead at 63% versus Trump’s 62%.

Impact of the debate and media commentary

So what is actually going on here? There’s no doubt that the fateful political debate of June 28 had a intense knock-on effect on both candidates’ sentiment scores. What this shows us is that Biden has been kicked while down, signified by the sharp decline in sentiment post-debate. But while the misery piles on Biden, Trump is understandably enjoying the gains with a peak in sentiment here.

Additionally, it is absolutely irrefutable that the New York Times’ recent statement suggesting that Biden should leave the presidential race to serve his country further compounded the negative sentiment around Biden. Look at how powerful media commentary is in shaping public perception here.

Analysis overview

Our sentiment analysis highlights the ultra sensitive nature of public opinion, especially around pivotal events like political debates such as these. Prior to the debate, Biden’s sentiment scores were generally higher than Trump’s in several key states, indicating stronger public support in those regions. However, that all changed after the debate and subsequent media coverage rubbed salt into the wound and significantly impacted Biden’s public perception, leading to a glaringly obvious drop in sentiment. As with most things in politics, perception is everything in the Biden vs Trump debate.

So what about Trump? His sentiment showed resilience and peaked post-debate, reflecting a relatively positive reception from the public during this critical period (no wonder, it wasn’t hard for him to look good in front of a faltering Biden!). Suffice to say, these findings show just how important the media’s influence can be in the rapidly changing world of political sentiment. The world will be watching and waiting to see what’s next.

Wilson Chan, CEO of Permutable AI, commented on our findings: “It is evident from our data set, how such pivotal moments as this debate and related press releases can shift public sentiment by a huge margin Such a negative sentiment shift post the debate again pointed towards the role of media and public opinion in fanning the flames.”

In the intense political environment exploring technologies such as our AI-based real-time sentiment analysis tools serve as a a convenient short-cut to the constantly shifting course of the political rollercoaster. To get more details about this, stay tuned for more insights or request a free trial through enquiries@permutable.ai.