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See macro change before consensus adjusts

11+ years of macroeconomic sentiment across 95+ economies, 80+ languages and more than 70 topics. Hourly, point-in-time intelligence built for macro research, regime monitoring and live market analysis.

Get ahead of the prints and identify changes in inflation, growth, policy and political risk before they are fully reflected in official data or market consensus.

US inflation sentiment analysis comparing narrative-driven inflation sentiment with official CPI inflation data from 2016 to 2026. Highlights pre-pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic inflation regimes, helping identify emerging inflation trends, regime shifts and market-relevant changes before they appear in economic releases.
  • See change between the prints
  • Look beyond consensus information
  • Identify meaningful divergence
Explore Global Macro Sentiment Indices

  • 90+

    countries

  • 70+

    macro topics

  • 80+

    languages

  • 1hr

    updates

  • 11+

    years point-in-time

The macro questions Permutable helps answer

Permutable helps macro teams investigate the economic questions that sit between official data, market consensus and asset-price behaviour.

  • Is inflation pressure broadening or narrowing?

    Separate changes in energy, food, housing, wages, services and goods to understand the composition and persistence of inflation pressure.

  • Is growth supported by genuine demand?

    Distinguish production resilience from expenditure, consumption and demand weakness to identify imbalances beneath headline growth.

  • Are policy expectations beginning to turn?

    Track changes in hawkish and dovish policy narratives, central-bank credibility and the expected interest-rate path before official decisions.

  • Are local conditions diverging from global perception?

    Compare domestic economic reporting with the international narrative influencing investors, currencies and sovereign-risk expectations.

  • Which macro narrative is becoming persistent?

    Distinguish temporary attention shocks from sustained narratives capable of altering expectations, positioning and risk premia.

  • Where is macro pressure transmitting next?

    Analyse how changes in inflation, policy, fiscal risk and capital flows propagate into rates, FX, commodities and cross-asset portfolios.

Discuss your macro research questions

See each economy from the inside and outside

Permutable separates domestic and international coverage, revealing whether economic pressure is emerging locally, being amplified externally or diverging from the narrative shaping global investor positioning

  • Domestic conditions

    Track how inflation, growth, employment, fiscal pressure and policy are being discussed by local-language sources, domestic institutions and policymakers.

  • International perception

    Measure how global media, financial institutions and external market participants are interpreting the same economy.

  • Narrative divergence

    Identify where domestic and international signals are separating, converging or beginning to move together – and whether that change could become relevant for market pricing.

Track macro narratives across major financial centres while distinguishing domestic reporting from international market perception

See macro intelligence in action

See inflation pressure beneath the headline

Track whether inflation pressure is broadening, narrowing or rotating across energy, food, housing, services, wages and consumer goods before the change is fully reflected in official releases.

Dark Permutable chart showing US inflation breadth from 2018 to 2026, with stacked component z-scores for energy, food, services, goods, housing and other categories alongside CPI YoY.

Frozen since 2020, our point-in-time models deliver genuinely out-of-sample, explainable macro intelligence

Request full methodology

Worked example: Policy narratives and US front-end rates

Point-in-time Policy Outlook sentiment showed its strongest relationship at the front of the US curve. A one-standard-deviation increase was followed by an 18.6bp rise in the three-month yield and a 15.9bp rise in the two-year yield over the following 60 trading days.

  • Dark Permutable chart showing a stitched out-of-sample equity curve from 2019 to 2026, with growth of $1 rising steadily above 1.06 in walk-forward strategy testing.
  • Dark Permutable infographic showing fixed-rule out-of-sample results for GMSI monetary policy sentiment as a short-end rates signal, including OOS Sharpe, return, drawdown, hit rate and topic-level Sharpe comparison.
  • Dark institutional bar chart showing total-year return by selected signal, with the 2014 Policy Outlook fold as the strongest annual out-of-sample contributor at 2.25%.
  • Dark Permutable chart showing a stitched out-of-sample equity curve from 2019 to 2026, with growth of $1 rising steadily above 1.06 in walk-forward strategy testing.
  • Dark Permutable infographic showing fixed-rule out-of-sample results for GMSI monetary policy sentiment as a short-end rates signal, including OOS Sharpe, return, drawdown, hit rate and topic-level Sharpe comparison.
  • Dark institutional bar chart showing total-year return by selected signal, with the 2014 Policy Outlook fold as the strongest annual out-of-sample contributor at 2.25%.
  • Dark Permutable chart showing a stitched out-of-sample equity curve from 2019 to 2026, with growth of $1 rising steadily above 1.06 in walk-forward strategy testing.
  • Dark Permutable infographic showing fixed-rule out-of-sample results for GMSI monetary policy sentiment as a short-end rates signal, including OOS Sharpe, return, drawdown, hit rate and topic-level Sharpe comparison.
  • Dark institutional bar chart showing total-year return by selected signal, with the 2014 Policy Outlook fold as the strongest annual out-of-sample contributor at 2.25%.
View Global Macro Sentiment Indices

Built for institutional macro decisions

Permutable provides an additional information layer for teams seeking to understand what is changing in the economy, why it is changing and when it may become relevant for markets.

 

  • Macro portfolio managers and strategists

    Track intensifying or easing pressure across countries and economic themes to support regime analysis, country selection and directional macro positioning.

     

  • Economists and forecasters

    Add a live information layer to nowcasting, scenario analysis and economic monitoring between official releases.

     

  • FX and rates teams

    Monitor inflation and policy divergence, central-bank expectations and differences between domestic conditions and international perception.

  • Commodity teams

    Assess the macroeconomic, policy and geopolitical developments affecting demand expectations, currencies, trade flows and commodity risk.

  • Systematic researchers

    Investigate macroeconomic sentiment as an orthogonal feature across point-in-time historical data, event studies and systematic research.

  • Portfolio and risk teams

    Identify emerging fiscal, political, inflationary and geopolitical pressure across countries, markets and portfolio exposures.

Request a macro intelligence demo

Tested across macro regimes the models had never seen

Models frozen since 2020 have navigated every subsequent macro regime without hindsight or retrospective optimisation.

  • Frozen models

    The core production models have remained unchanged through multiple economic and market regimes.

  • Out-of-sample

    Events after 2020 were not incorporated into model training or used to optimise historical classifications retrospectively.

  • Point-in-time

    Historical signals preserve only the information available at each moment, supporting testing without future information entering earlier observations.

  • Explainable intelligence

    Users can move from a macro signal back to the countries, topics, narratives and source-level information contributing to the change.

View global macro coverage

Turning macroeconomic narrative into actionable intelligence

 

 

Data ingestion

Permutable captures real-time macroeconomic information from global news, central bank commentary, policy updates, geopolitical developments and market commentary. This creates a live intelligence layer that reflects the narratives, expectations, and sentiment shifts influencing markets before they are fully visible in traditional macro datasets.

 

  • Data ingestion

  • Natural language processing & LLMs

  • Sentiment scoring & event detection

  • Narrative and macro regime signal construction

  • Structuring & delivery

  • Validation & quality control

Test macro sentiment against the markets that matter to your team

FAQs

 

 

  • What is macroeconomic sentiment intelligence?

    Macroeconomic sentiment intelligence measures how economic conditions, policy expectations and risks are developing across global and local information sources.

    It provides a live complement to official economic statistics, consensus forecasts and traditional market data.

  • How is macroeconomic sentiment different from traditional economic data?

    Official statistics generally measure economic activity after it has occurred and are released monthly or quarterly.

    Macroeconomic sentiment tracks how inflation, growth, employment, policy and other conditions are being discussed as they develop between those releases.

  • How can macroeconomic sentiment help identify regime changes?

    Permutable monitors whether economic narratives are strengthening, weakening, broadening or spreading across countries and markets.

    Persistent changes across multiple related topics can provide additional evidence that the macro environment is moving into a new regime.

     

  • What makes Permutable’s macro intelligence differentiated?

    We combine broad global and local-language information coverage with domestic-versus-international separation, hourly monitoring, point-in-time history and source-level explainability.

    This provides information beyond a generic positive-or-negative news score or an English-language consensus feed.

     

  • Why does domestic-versus-international sentiment matter?

    Local sources may identify economic stress, policy concerns or changes in household conditions before international coverage responds.

    International sources may then amplify those developments once they become relevant for global investors, currencies, rates or sovereign risk.

    Separating the two helps users understand where a narrative originated and how it is travelling.

     

  • Which macroeconomic themes can be analysed?

    Coverage includes inflation, growth, monetary policy, fiscal conditions, employment, consumer demand, trade, market stress, political pressure and geopolitical risk.

     

  • Which markets can macroeconomic sentiment support?

    Macroeconomic intelligence can support research across interest rates, sovereign debt, currencies, commodities and cross-asset portfolios.

    The relevant signal and testing framework will depend on the market and investment question being investigated.

     

  • Who typically uses Permutable’s macroeconomic intelligence?

    Users include macro portfolio managers, strategists, economists, systematic researchers, FX and rates teams, commodity investors, asset managers and portfolio-risk teams.

  • Can the intelligence be used for quantitative research?

    Yes. Permutable’s Global Macro Sentiment Indices provide hourly, point-in-time historical data that can support signal testing, event studies, regime analysis and systematic research.

  • Are the models tested out of sample?

    Yes. Permutable’s production models were trained in 2020 and have not been refitted using the major macroeconomic regimes that followed.

  • Can users understand what is driving a macro signal?

    Yes. Signals can be traced back to the relevant countries, economic topics, narratives, events and underlying source-level information.

  • How is the intelligence accessed?

    We provides macroeconomic intelligence through API, Excel, institutional data feeds,  and customised integrations.