Precious Metals Market Insights

Monthly Overview

Executive Summary

Gold has extended a strong bullish run through September into early October, rising from 3,640.25 on Sep 5 to a last reported close of 3,915.75 ([1]), a gain of roughly 275.50 points or about +7.6% over the period. The rally was driven by rising Fed rate-cut expectations, recurring safe-haven flows from geopolitical shocks and central-bank buying, while intermittent dollar strength and profit-taking produced short-lived pullbacks; the market recorded an intraday high of 3,920.25 on Oct 1 and a low of 3,864.00 on Oct 2 during this bout of volatility. Sentiment evolved from early-month consolidation into risk-off-led accumulation as traders priced a higher probability of Fed easing and added gold to reserves and ETFs. Latest price is 3,915.75 ([1]); recent realized intraday volatility ranged between 3,864.00 ([2]) and 3,920.25 ([3]), with active near-term drivers being US fiscal uncertainty, Fed communications, central-bank purchases and geopolitical risk, while downside risks include transient dollar rebounds and Fed caution that could temper expectations for cuts.

3rd October 2025 - Fed Bets and Buying

Into the current short week, gold opened near 3,915.75 on Oct 3 after an intraday dip to about 3,872.00 and closed the session at 3,915.75, reflecting resilience and continued accumulation. Renewed hostilities in Ukraine pushed an early‑session dip before buyers stepped in, and mounting Fed‑cut expectations together with sizable central‑bank purchases underpinned a strong reversal to the close ([4]). Reported large central‑bank demand and persistent rate‑cut positioning kept the market bid and left prices elevated near the 3,900 area as of the Oct 3 close ([5][6][7]).

26th September 2025 - Accelerated Gains, Volatile Peak

The two‑week stretch beginning Sep 26 saw gold open at 3,801.75 and accelerate to 3,859.50 by Sep 29 and to 3,888.50 on Sep 30, a net gain of 86.75 points or +2.3% from the Sep 26 open, before intraday volatility around the US fiscal impasse in early October. US PCE data and the evolving rate outlook on Sep 26 reinforced expectations of lower policy rates ahead and prompted a swift rally from the low‑3,700s into the high‑3,800s (). Geopolitical shocks, notably UN "snapback" sanctions on Iran and intensifying Russia–Ukraine hostilities, created a geopolitical premium that produced a safe‑haven surge on Sep 28 into Sep 29 and lifted intraday highs and ETF flows ([8][9][10]). Government‑funding uncertainty and a softer dollar added to the breakout on Sep 29 as Fed‑cut bets strengthened ([11][12][13]). Mixed data, BoJ minutes and profit‑taking generated intra‑session reversals at record levels on Sep 30, while the US government shutdown on Oct 1 triggered an intraday spike to 3,920.25 before the market eased back, illustrating the dominance of fiscal and geopolitical catalysts versus short‑term profit‑taking ([14][15][16][17][18][19][20]). Fed caution and regional Fed commentary prompted a midday pullback on Oct 2, although shutdown‑related safe‑haven flows kept the market supported ([21][22][23]).

19th September 2025 - Safe‑Haven Fueled Rally

Starting at 3,720.00 on Sep 19, the market regained traction and climbed to a weekly high near 3,775.75 on Sep 22 and closed the period around 3,780.00, a rise of about 60.00 points or +1.6% from the Sep 19 open. Renewed safe‑haven flows and a rise in US yields alongside geopolitical tensions supported bids and revived bullish positioning ([24]). Rising odds of further Fed easing and positive analyst commentary sustained demand and helped prices test and breach prior resistance levels ([25][26]). Market exuberance was tempered by a brief bout of volatility after Fed‑chair commentary, with Powell's caution and attendant dollar strength producing choppy, range‑bound trading and profit‑taking that kept the market capped intraday ([27][28][29]). Central‑bank accumulation continued to provide structural support into the close ().

12th September 2025 - Breakout and Correction

The week began at 3,684.75 on Sep 12 and surged to a breakout through resistance to 3,718.25 on Sep 15 ([30][31][32][33]) and peaked near 3,729.25 on Sep 16 before a corrective pullback to 3,673.75 on Sep 18. Persistent Fed‑cut expectations and positioning ahead of Fed policy releases supported the early week bid and higher lows ([34][35]). Oversized central‑bank demand and a softer dollar on Sep 15 reinforced the breakout and drove the move above 3,700 ([36][37]). Intraday consolidation on Sep 16 was cushioned by reports of record gold reserves among central banks, even as analysts warned a correction could be looming ([38]). Profit‑taking ahead of the Fed decision and sector‑specific concerns contributed to the retreat on Sep 17, and a firmer dollar immediately after the Fed's rate action on Sep 18 pressured gold lower, with only seasonal buying in India providing a modest floor ([39][40][41][33]).

5th September 2025 - Stabilization then Rally

The week opened at 3,640.25 on Sep 5 and after an initial small dip to 3,632.75 by Sep 7, gold rallied into the next week to finish the period at 3,673.25, up 33.00 points or +0.9% from the Sep 5 open. Weak US nonfarm payrolls on Sep 5 revived dovish Fed expectations and underpinned the initial rebound into the mid‑3,600s, supporting buyer conviction around record territory ([32][42]). Central‑bank buying and ongoing Fed‑cut speculation helped the market hold gains and stabilize near the mid‑3,630s late in the week ([31][43]). Profit‑taking and intraday US dollar strength periodically capped advances, notably on Sep 9 and heading into the CPI week, which produced brief retracements before buyers returned ([44][45]).

6 Month Forecast