In this article we explore recent gas price trends and how Gas and LNG flows, storage and weather expectations shaped the market this week, using our Trading Co-Pilot, which tracked the divergence in real time. We start Stateside, where Henry Hub gathered steam as colder snaps and strong export loadings gathered pace. We then turn to Europe, where TTF softened as comfortable inventories, a steady supply outlook and brisk wind generation weighed on prices. Along the way we note brief sentiment flares from storms, logistics issues and political events, and show how our Trading Co-Pilot’s Sentiment and forecast layers filtered short-lived noise from more durable shifts.
Gas price trends across Henry Hub
Henry Hub pushed higher early in the week, rising from about $3.20 to $3.55. Our Trading Co-Pilot picked up the turn in the gas market before the move was clear cut. The news of stronger loadings, steadier pipeline balance and a smaller-than-expected storage build pointed to slightly tighter near-term conditions – key drivers behind gas price trends in the US. The forecast stayed constructive despite intraday dips, as the system was unfazed by headline noise.
As the week wore on, weather models turned milder. Momentum cooled, but the regime held, helped by softer storage build. The fundamentals set the move, milder weather tempered it, and news of healthier storage expectations cushioned the landing. The futures curve and regional prints told the same story, a firm near-term tone, with any odd headwinds down to local pipeline bottlenecks rather than a genuine supply shock.
Why it matters
US gas prices trends can lift even with comfortable stocks when injections undershoot seasonal norms and exports stay brisk. Near-term swings now hinge on the weather outlook, weekly storage prints and loading pace.
Gas price trends across TTF
The European story went the other way: gas price trends at TTF softened as comfortable inventories, a steady supply outlook and brisk wind generation weighed on prices. TTF slipped from €33.5 to €31 as the supply cushion dominated and milder seasonal climate weighed on the price. Storage held around 80%, with the 90% target by December well within reach. Norwegian flows have been reliable as output at key plants resumed, and solid wind generation took the bite out of gas demand. Flow and storage trends add comfort heading into winter, levels have rebuilt at pace after last season’s draw, helped by higher Q2 imports, easing concerns about refill timing. Europe is also reducing exposure to Russian LNG over the coming years, keeping attention on alternative supply and energy flexibility.
Together, this amounted to a bearish turn, with our Trading Co-Pilot keeping Fundamental Sentiment cautious, reflecting a well-supplied backdrop. There was a brief mid-week stabiliser as export and shipping chatter picked up, flicking the Forecast to neutral, but with inflows uninterrupted and wind output still strong, the impulse faded quickly, in line with forward prices edging lower.
Why it matters
In Europe, the state of the cushion, stocks, inflows and renewables, usually outweighs short-lived risk headlines. It likely takes a credible supply interruption or a sustained drop in wind to lift prices meaningfully.
Share drivers, different weighting
Both markets watch the same gas price trends levers – weather, storage, flows – yet the weighting to each market differs.
- Henry Hub: Temperature updates and storage surprises drive the outlook, reinforced by export strength.
- TTF: Energy system resilience (stocks + steady inflows + wind), weather patterns and headline bumps unless they linger on.
Gas price trends: What’s on the horizon
- Cold vs mild: Colder forecast revisions lift Henry Hub gas price trends, warmer runs soften or flatten the position.
- Cushion vs drawdown: Weekly EIA/European storage versus seasonal norms: smaller builds support gas price trends vs larger builds weigh on them.
- Flowing vs stuck: Gas loadings, pipeline reliability, shipping snags, plant outages. Strong, steady flows support gas price trends; bottlenecks or outages unsettle.
- Windy vs still: Higher wind and renewables trim gas burn and weigh on TTF, weaker output lifts gas demand.
See how Trading Co-Pilot fits your workflow and turns sentiment into strategy. Book a short demo to view real-time signals that improve entries and support execution in Gas and LNG markets and stay ahead of gas price trends request a demo at enquiries@permutable.ai