Jack Watson 
In this insight we analyse Japan’s policy normalisation and its implications for USD/JPY and the Japanese yen carry trade into 2026. It explains why a Q3 growth setback, a steeper JGB curve, rising fiscal sensitivity, and more reactive Bank of Japan signalling are increasing carry risk and tightening global funding conditions. It also explores why … Read more
In this Energy Market Outlook 2026, we demonstrate how 2025 marked a clear shift in market dynamics and how this will continue into the year ahead. Fundamentals remained the bedrock, yet sentiment increasingly shaped positioning and the direction of trade. Even with stable supply, soft demand and well-stocked inventories, markets moved in ways that the … Read more
In this article we take a closer look at the recent volatility in the yen outlook as Japan grapples with a Q3 growth setback, weakening domestic demand and a hardening China risk premium. We examine how setbacks to tourism and tech shocks, rising long-end JGB yields, deteriorating cross-asset sentiment and a cautious BoJ are shaping … Read more
This is a comprehensive guide for institutional investors, quants, and macro strategists on applying news sentiment to trading, risk management, and regime detection, with examples taken from Permutable AI’s market sentiment data. We’re often asked how to apply our market sentiment insights in practice, how to turn the behavioural layer of markets into measurable, actionable … Read more
Although at Permutable, our core offering is market intelligence, one of our key differentiators is that we run a live systematic commodity trading strategy built on those insights which has delivered clear, repeatable results over the past year. Clients asked whether our sentiment signals only back-test well. We took this one step further – using … Read more
In this article we analyse the rally in wheat and soybeans over October. We start with our Trading Co-Pilot flagging the Ags rally early, then reveal how the data and thawing trade tension confirmed the turn. The model shifted bullish as policy risk eased, buyers re-engaged, and short-term momentum followed through. As these signals aligned, … Read more
In this article we set the scene for Brent crude oil’s recent rally, fresh sanctions offered a swift jolt that re-escalated geopolitical and logistics risk premia. The market is tight where immediacy matters, yet agencies still see ample oil supply in aggregate. A strained shipping and insurance backdrop raised the cost of getting barrels sooner … Read more
In this article we examine the precious metals outlook, looking at the factors behind the latest sell-off, focusing on how shifting risk appetite has shaped price action and what lies ahead into 2026. At present, gold sits at $4,115/oz (9.6% m-o-m) and silver at $48/oz (10.0% m-o-m). Both remain near record territory despite this week’s … Read more
In this article we look at the market dynamics driving aluminium prices in Q4 and the outlook ahead for 2026. Aluminium enters Q4 on a firmer footing as prices rally to a three year high. What counts now is the price and availability of power, not the noisier swings in inventories. Aluminium supply is tightening … Read more
In this article we explore Bitcoin’s October rally and the drivers behind its record breaking ascent. Bitcoin rose a little over 12% on the week, trading around $124,000 after briefly topping $126,000. The advance has been carried by renewed demand through spot ETFs, a softer dollar for much of the move, and a shutdown-prompted search … Read more